Soymeal Futures Fall Before Weekend

November 18th, 2023

Business Finance Definition and Meaning | Emeritus IndiaCrush margins increased this week, as the products both closed higher Fri/Fri while beans were red on the weekly. Front month Soymeal  futures led the beans lower with 2.4% to 2.9% losses of as much as $13.50/ton. Despite the pullback on Friday, meal was still at a net $3.90 gain for the week’s move. Beans fell by 11 ¼ to 20 cents across the front months. That left Jan at a net 7 ¼ cent loss for the week. Soy oil was the outlier on Friday, as the front month Soybean Oil futures closed 31 to 38 points higher. The cash B100 prices were reported steady in USDA’s weekly report, at $3.62/gal in MN and $5.47/gal in IL.

Canadian Canola Prices fell by 1.5% on Friday, which flipped the market net lower for the weekly move. Jan canola went into the weekend $3.90 CAD/MT below last week’s settle.

Weekly CoT data showed managed money firms were buying soybeans during the week that ended 11/14. The 15.9k new longs left the group 87,913 contracts net long. Commercial soybean hedgers were adding shorts, strengthening their net short by 17.7k contracts to 165,888. Spec traders were shown with a 131,404 contract net long in soymeal, a +19.4k for the week via net new buying. Managed money firms were 3.7k contracts less net short in soy oil, at 6.6k contracts as of 11/14.

The International Grains Council estimates world bean production at 395 MMT, up 2 MMT from the prior outlook and now 28 MMT higher yr/yr. South American output, specifically Argentina, was the increase from October. Carryout was left UNCH at 62 MMT in the IGC update.

BAGE raised their planted area for 23/24 soybeans in Argentina by 1% to 17.3m HA (~43m acres). They listed the crop at 18% planted.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows some 25 to 55 mm of rain in the 7-day forecast for Brazil’s Center-South Region. That would still be ~75mm below normal for Mato Grosso. Southern Brazil’s Parana/Santa Catarina/Rio Grande do Sul is expecting another 80-130mm of rain for the week, still well above normal.

Jan 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.40 1/4, down 20 cents,

Nearby Cash was $12.80 3/8, down 20 1/8 cents,

Mar 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.56 1/2, down 18 1/2 cents,

May 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.69, down 17 1/2 cents,

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.


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